The International 10 - Group Stage Day Four Matches

Vanya Kirillov -

Dawn of the final day of groups. With only twelve matches left, teams have one last chance to prove themselves. I've aggregated predictions for both groups here.

Refer to the summary table at the top, or scroll down to see match specifics if you want a more comprehensive breakdown.

Predictions and bet suggestions

Group A

Date Team Opponent Odds Win% Win% Implied (norm) Action
2021-10-10 04:00AM Undying Evil Geniuses 7.04 30.22% 12.79% Bet 18.67% on UND vs EG
2021-10-10 04:00AM Invictus Gaming OG 3.21 33.93% 28.09% No Bet
2021-10-10 04:00AM Thunder Predator T1 4.37 19.44% 20.64% No Bet
2021-10-10 04:00AM Team Aster Virtus.pro 3.76 25.45% 23.98% No Bet

Group B

Date Team Opponent Odds Win% Win% Implied (norm) Action
2021-10-10 02:00AM Quincy Crew SG e-sports 1.95 50.84% 46.20% No Bet
2021-10-10 02:00AM Elephant PSG.LGD 4.89 14.88% 18.45% No Bet
2021-10-10 02:00AM Team Spirit beastcoast 2.29 47.48% 39.39% No Bet
2021-10-10 02:00AM DRAW (Team Secret v Fnatic) 2.97 41.13% 30.36% Bet 11.25% on DRAW vs (Secret v Fnatic)
2021-10-10 06:00AM beastcoast PSG.LGD 7.28 8.08% 12.36% No Bet
2021-10-10 06:00AM Quincy Crew Elephant 3.46 35.14% 26.06% Bet 8.77% on QC vs Elephant
2021-10-10 06:00AM Team Spirit SG e-sports 2.04 44.79% 44.21% No Bet
2021-10-10 06:00AM Vici Gaming Team Secret 3.49 26.14% 25.82% No Bet

Individual matches: Group A

Invictus Gaming v OG

metric Invictus Gaming draw OG
Market Odds 3.21 (+221) 2.38 (+138) 2.65 (+165)
Implied Win Probability 31.15% 42.02% 37.74%
Implied Win (Normalized) 28.09% 37.89% 34.03%
Calculated Win Probability 33.93% 44.34% 21.73%
Expected Value -0.0714 -0.0637 -0.5566
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +246 Bet @ odds > +154 Bet @ odds > +498

Evil Geniuses v Undying

metric Evil Geniuses draw Undying
Market Odds 1.68 (-147) 2.68 (+168) 7.04 (+604)
Implied Win Probability 59.52% 37.31% 14.20%
Implied Win (Normalized) 53.60% 33.60% 12.79%
Calculated Win Probability 24.90% 44.87% 30.22%
Expected Value -0.6656 0.0686 0.7755
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +402 Bet @ odds > +151 Bet 18.67%

Virtus.pro v Team Aster

metric Virtus.pro draw Team Aster
Market Odds 2.3 (+130) 2.45 (+145) 3.76 (+276)
Implied Win Probability 43.48% 40.82% 26.60%
Implied Win (Normalized) 39.21% 36.81% 23.98%
Calculated Win Probability 29.63% 44.92% 25.45%
Expected Value -0.4335 -0.0219 -0.2311
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +306 Bet @ odds > +150 Bet @ odds > +389

T1 v Thunder Predator

metric T1 draw Thunder Predator
Market Odds 2.33 (+133) 2.22 (+122) 4.37 (+337)
Implied Win Probability 42.92% 45.05% 22.88%
Implied Win (Normalized) 38.72% 40.64% 20.64%
Calculated Win Probability 36.91% 43.65% 19.44%
Expected Value -0.2566 -0.142 -0.3688
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +213 Bet @ odds > +159 Bet @ odds > +592

Individual matches: Group B

PSG.LGD v Elephant

metric PSG.LGD draw Elephant
Market Odds 2.01 (+101) 2.46 (+146) 4.89 (+389)
Implied Win Probability 49.75% 40.65% 20.45%
Implied Win (Normalized) 44.88% 36.67% 18.45%
Calculated Win Probability 43.84% 41.28% 14.88%
Expected Value -0.2193 -0.1075 -0.517
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +157 Bet @ odds > +176 Bet @ odds > +912

Quincy Crew v SG e-sports

metric Quincy Crew draw SG e-sports
Market Odds 1.95 (-105) 2.3 (+130) 6.16 (+516)
Implied Win Probability 51.28% 43.48% 16.23%
Implied Win (Normalized) 46.20% 39.17% 14.63%
Calculated Win Probability 50.84% 38.02% 11.15%
Expected Value -0.1062 -0.2406 -0.6214
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +118 Bet @ odds > +203 Bet @ odds > +1527

Team Spirit v beastcoast

metric Team Spirit draw beastcoast
Market Odds 2.29 (+129) 2.33 (+133) 4.12 (+312)
Implied Win Probability 43.67% 42.92% 24.27%
Implied Win (Normalized) 39.39% 38.71% 21.89%
Calculated Win Probability 47.48% 39.68% 12.84%
Expected Value -0.0271 -0.192 -0.6771
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +135 Bet @ odds > +188 Bet @ odds > +1176

Team Secret v Fnatic

metric Team Secret draw Fnatic
Market Odds 1.65 (-154) 2.97 (+197) 6.02 (+502)
Implied Win Probability 60.61% 33.67% 16.61%
Implied Win (Normalized) 54.66% 30.36% 14.98%
Calculated Win Probability 44.21% 41.13% 14.66%
Expected Value -0.3531 0.0731 -0.4184
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +155 Bet 11.25% Bet @ odds > +935

Team Secret v Vici Gaming

metric Team Secret draw Vici Gaming
Market Odds 2.46 (+146) 2.4 (+140) 3.49 (+249)
Implied Win Probability 40.65% 41.67% 28.65%
Implied Win (Normalized) 36.63% 37.55% 25.82%
Calculated Win Probability 28.90% 44.97% 26.14%
Expected Value -0.4121 -0.0408 -0.2624
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +318 Bet @ odds > +150 Bet @ odds > +373

PSG.LGD v beastcoast

metric PSG.LGD draw beastcoast
Market Odds 1.55 (-182) 3.04 (+204) 7.28 (+628)
Implied Win Probability 64.52% 32.89% 13.74%
Implied Win (Normalized) 58.05% 29.60% 12.36%
Calculated Win Probability 57.96% 33.96% 8.08%
Expected Value -0.1792 -0.1197 -0.7754
Bet Size Bet @ odds > -112 Bet @ odds > +245 Bet @ odds > +3142

Elephant v Quincy Crew

metric Elephant draw Quincy Crew
Market Odds 2.65 (+165) 2.26 (+126) 3.46 (+246)
Implied Win Probability 37.74% 44.25% 28.90%
Implied Win (Normalized) 34.03% 39.90% 26.06%
Calculated Win Probability 20.78% 44.09% 35.14%
Expected Value -0.5819 -0.1167 0.0427
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +534 Bet @ odds > +156 Bet 8.77%

Team Spirit v SG e-sports

metric Team Spirit draw SG e-sports
Market Odds 2.04 (+104) 2.34 (+134) 5.23 (+423)
Implied Win Probability 49.02% 42.74% 19.12%
Implied Win (Normalized) 44.21% 38.54% 17.25%
Calculated Win Probability 44.79% 40.89% 14.32%
Expected Value -0.1883 -0.1603 -0.5124
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +151 Bet @ odds > +179 Bet @ odds > +973

You can also find all of these suggestions on our suggested bets page, which will stay up-to-date as the tournament progresses!

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