The International 10 - Group Stage Day Four Matches
Dawn of the final day of groups. With only twelve matches left, teams have one last chance to prove themselves. I've aggregated predictions for both groups here.
Refer to the summary table at the top, or scroll down to see match specifics if you want a more comprehensive breakdown.
Predictions and bet suggestions
Group A
| Date | Team | Opponent | Odds | Win% | Win% Implied (norm) | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-10 04:00AM | Undying | Evil Geniuses | 7.04 | 30.22% | 12.79% | Bet 18.67% on UND vs EG |
| 2021-10-10 04:00AM | Invictus Gaming | OG | 3.21 | 33.93% | 28.09% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-10 04:00AM | Thunder Predator | T1 | 4.37 | 19.44% | 20.64% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-10 04:00AM | Team Aster | Virtus.pro | 3.76 | 25.45% | 23.98% | No Bet |
Group B
| Date | Team | Opponent | Odds | Win% | Win% Implied (norm) | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-10 02:00AM | Quincy Crew | SG e-sports | 1.95 | 50.84% | 46.20% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-10 02:00AM | Elephant | PSG.LGD | 4.89 | 14.88% | 18.45% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-10 02:00AM | Team Spirit | beastcoast | 2.29 | 47.48% | 39.39% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-10 02:00AM | DRAW | (Team Secret v Fnatic) | 2.97 | 41.13% | 30.36% | Bet 11.25% on DRAW vs (Secret v Fnatic) |
| 2021-10-10 06:00AM | beastcoast | PSG.LGD | 7.28 | 8.08% | 12.36% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-10 06:00AM | Quincy Crew | Elephant | 3.46 | 35.14% | 26.06% | Bet 8.77% on QC vs Elephant |
| 2021-10-10 06:00AM | Team Spirit | SG e-sports | 2.04 | 44.79% | 44.21% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-10 06:00AM | Vici Gaming | Team Secret | 3.49 | 26.14% | 25.82% | No Bet |
Individual matches: Group A
Invictus Gaming v OG
| metric | Invictus Gaming | draw | OG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 3.21 (+221) | 2.38 (+138) | 2.65 (+165) |
| Implied Win Probability | 31.15% | 42.02% | 37.74% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 28.09% | 37.89% | 34.03% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 33.93% | 44.34% | 21.73% |
| Expected Value | -0.0714 | -0.0637 | -0.5566 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +246 | Bet @ odds > +154 | Bet @ odds > +498 |
Evil Geniuses v Undying
| metric | Evil Geniuses | draw | Undying |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 1.68 (-147) | 2.68 (+168) | 7.04 (+604) |
| Implied Win Probability | 59.52% | 37.31% | 14.20% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 53.60% | 33.60% | 12.79% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 24.90% | 44.87% | 30.22% |
| Expected Value | -0.6656 | 0.0686 | 0.7755 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +402 | Bet @ odds > +151 | Bet 18.67% |
Virtus.pro v Team Aster
| metric | Virtus.pro | draw | Team Aster |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.3 (+130) | 2.45 (+145) | 3.76 (+276) |
| Implied Win Probability | 43.48% | 40.82% | 26.60% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 39.21% | 36.81% | 23.98% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 29.63% | 44.92% | 25.45% |
| Expected Value | -0.4335 | -0.0219 | -0.2311 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +306 | Bet @ odds > +150 | Bet @ odds > +389 |
T1 v Thunder Predator
| metric | T1 | draw | Thunder Predator |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.33 (+133) | 2.22 (+122) | 4.37 (+337) |
| Implied Win Probability | 42.92% | 45.05% | 22.88% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 38.72% | 40.64% | 20.64% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 36.91% | 43.65% | 19.44% |
| Expected Value | -0.2566 | -0.142 | -0.3688 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +213 | Bet @ odds > +159 | Bet @ odds > +592 |
Individual matches: Group B
PSG.LGD v Elephant
| metric | PSG.LGD | draw | Elephant |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.01 (+101) | 2.46 (+146) | 4.89 (+389) |
| Implied Win Probability | 49.75% | 40.65% | 20.45% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 44.88% | 36.67% | 18.45% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 43.84% | 41.28% | 14.88% |
| Expected Value | -0.2193 | -0.1075 | -0.517 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +157 | Bet @ odds > +176 | Bet @ odds > +912 |
Quincy Crew v SG e-sports
| metric | Quincy Crew | draw | SG e-sports |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 1.95 (-105) | 2.3 (+130) | 6.16 (+516) |
| Implied Win Probability | 51.28% | 43.48% | 16.23% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 46.20% | 39.17% | 14.63% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 50.84% | 38.02% | 11.15% |
| Expected Value | -0.1062 | -0.2406 | -0.6214 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +118 | Bet @ odds > +203 | Bet @ odds > +1527 |
Team Spirit v beastcoast
| metric | Team Spirit | draw | beastcoast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.29 (+129) | 2.33 (+133) | 4.12 (+312) |
| Implied Win Probability | 43.67% | 42.92% | 24.27% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 39.39% | 38.71% | 21.89% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 47.48% | 39.68% | 12.84% |
| Expected Value | -0.0271 | -0.192 | -0.6771 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +135 | Bet @ odds > +188 | Bet @ odds > +1176 |
Team Secret v Fnatic
| metric | Team Secret | draw | Fnatic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 1.65 (-154) | 2.97 (+197) | 6.02 (+502) |
| Implied Win Probability | 60.61% | 33.67% | 16.61% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 54.66% | 30.36% | 14.98% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 44.21% | 41.13% | 14.66% |
| Expected Value | -0.3531 | 0.0731 | -0.4184 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +155 | Bet 11.25% | Bet @ odds > +935 |
Team Secret v Vici Gaming
| metric | Team Secret | draw | Vici Gaming |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.46 (+146) | 2.4 (+140) | 3.49 (+249) |
| Implied Win Probability | 40.65% | 41.67% | 28.65% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 36.63% | 37.55% | 25.82% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 28.90% | 44.97% | 26.14% |
| Expected Value | -0.4121 | -0.0408 | -0.2624 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +318 | Bet @ odds > +150 | Bet @ odds > +373 |
PSG.LGD v beastcoast
| metric | PSG.LGD | draw | beastcoast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 1.55 (-182) | 3.04 (+204) | 7.28 (+628) |
| Implied Win Probability | 64.52% | 32.89% | 13.74% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 58.05% | 29.60% | 12.36% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 57.96% | 33.96% | 8.08% |
| Expected Value | -0.1792 | -0.1197 | -0.7754 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > -112 | Bet @ odds > +245 | Bet @ odds > +3142 |
Elephant v Quincy Crew
| metric | Elephant | draw | Quincy Crew |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.65 (+165) | 2.26 (+126) | 3.46 (+246) |
| Implied Win Probability | 37.74% | 44.25% | 28.90% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 34.03% | 39.90% | 26.06% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 20.78% | 44.09% | 35.14% |
| Expected Value | -0.5819 | -0.1167 | 0.0427 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +534 | Bet @ odds > +156 | Bet 8.77% |
Team Spirit v SG e-sports
| metric | Team Spirit | draw | SG e-sports |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.04 (+104) | 2.34 (+134) | 5.23 (+423) |
| Implied Win Probability | 49.02% | 42.74% | 19.12% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 44.21% | 38.54% | 17.25% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 44.79% | 40.89% | 14.32% |
| Expected Value | -0.1883 | -0.1603 | -0.5124 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +151 | Bet @ odds > +179 | Bet @ odds > +973 |
You can also find all of these suggestions on our suggested bets page, which will stay up-to-date as the tournament progresses!
For more in-depth match analysis, discussion, and predictions, as well as quantitative betting strategy tips, subscribe to stay in the loop! You can also follow us on Twitter or Facebook for quick prediction snapshots of upcoming matches. Alacrity is your fastest path from simply gambling to beating the market. Stay ahead of the game!