Welcome to my predictions for day two of The International 10! For the four days of group stages, I'll continue to aggregate match predictions and bet suggestions instead of flooding Twitter with a dozen posts.
Refer to the summary table at the top, or scroll down to see match specifics if you want a more comprehensive breakdown.
Predictions and bet suggestions
Date
Team
Opponent
Odds
Win%
Win% Implied (norm)
Action
2021-10-08 04:00AM
T1
Virtus.pro
4.28
19.08%
21.08%
No Bet
2021-10-08 04:00AM
Alliance
Evil Geniuses
4
19.29%
22.57%
No Bet
2021-10-08 04:00AM
Team Aster
OG
3.21
38.29%
28.11%
Bet 10.36% on Aster vs OG
2021-10-08 04:00AM
DRAW
(Invictus Gaming v Thunder Predator)
2.6
43.89%
34.66%
Bet 8.83% on DRAW vs (iG v ThunderP)
2021-10-08 08:00AM
Undying
Thunder Predator
2.53
47.79%
35.68%
Bet 13.67% on UND vs ThunderP
2021-10-08 08:00AM
Invictus Gaming
Virtus.pro
4.93
21.72%
18.32%
No Bet
2021-10-08 08:00AM
Team Aster
Alliance
2.46
39.05%
36.63%
No Bet
2021-10-08 08:00AM
DRAW
(OG v T1)
2.71
44.75%
33.33%
Bet 12.44% on DRAW vs (OG v T1)
Individual matches
OG v Team Aster
metric
OG
draw
Team Aster
Market Odds
2.84 (+184)
2.25 (+125)
3.21 (+221)
Implied Win Probability
35.21%
44.44%
31.15%
Implied Win (Normalized)
31.78%
40.11%
28.11%
Calculated Win Probability
18.46%
43.26%
38.29%
Expected Value
-0.6178
-0.1392
0.0685
Bet Size
Bet @ odds > +643
Bet @ odds > +161
Bet 10.36%
Virtus.pro v T1
metric
Virtus.pro
draw
T1
Market Odds
2.08 (+108)
2.54 (+154)
4.28 (+328)
Implied Win Probability
48.08%
39.37%
23.36%
Implied Win (Normalized)
43.39%
35.53%
21.08%
Calculated Win Probability
37.40%
43.51%
19.08%
Expected Value
-0.326
-0.0218
-0.3972
Bet Size
Bet @ odds > +209
Bet @ odds > +160
Bet @ odds > +610
Evil Geniuses v Alliance
metric
Evil Geniuses
draw
Alliance
Market Odds
2.2 (+120)
2.48 (+148)
4 (+300)
Implied Win Probability
45.45%
40.32%
25.00%
Implied Win (Normalized)
41.03%
36.40%
22.57%
Calculated Win Probability
37.12%
43.59%
19.29%
Expected Value
-0.2933
-0.043
-0.4285
Bet Size
Bet @ odds > +211
Bet @ odds > +159
Bet @ odds > +600
Invictus Gaming v Thunder Predator
metric
Invictus Gaming
draw
Thunder Predator
Market Odds
1.97 (-103)
2.6 (+160)
4.6 (+360)
Implied Win Probability
50.76%
38.46%
21.74%
Implied Win (Normalized)
45.75%
34.66%
19.59%
Calculated Win Probability
35.95%
43.89%
20.15%
Expected Value
-0.3902
0.0112
-0.3029
Bet Size
Bet @ odds > +223
Bet 8.83%
Bet @ odds > +560
Invictus Gaming v Virtus.pro
metric
Invictus Gaming
draw
Virtus.pro
Market Odds
4.93 (+393)
2.3 (+130)
2.13 (+113)
Implied Win Probability
20.28%
43.48%
46.95%
Implied Win (Normalized)
18.32%
39.27%
42.41%
Calculated Win Probability
21.72%
44.34%
33.94%
Expected Value
-0.1758
-0.0952
-0.3835
Bet Size
Bet @ odds > +498
Bet @ odds > +154
Bet @ odds > +245
Team Aster v Alliance
metric
Team Aster
draw
Alliance
Market Odds
2.46 (+146)
2.4 (+140)
3.49 (+249)
Implied Win Probability
40.65%
41.67%
28.65%
Implied Win (Normalized)
36.63%
37.55%
25.82%
Calculated Win Probability
39.05%
43.02%
17.92%
Expected Value
-0.1623
-0.0875
-0.5489
Bet Size
Bet @ odds > +194
Bet @ odds > +163
Bet @ odds > +674
Undying v Thunder Predator
metric
Undying
draw
Thunder Predator
Market Odds
2.53 (+153)
2.4 (+140)
3.38 (+238)
Implied Win Probability
39.53%
41.67%
29.59%
Implied Win (Normalized)
35.68%
37.61%
26.71%
Calculated Win Probability
47.79%
39.53%
12.67%
Expected Value
0.0827
-0.1712
-0.7406
Bet Size
Bet 13.67%
Bet @ odds > +190
Bet @ odds > +1203
OG v T1
metric
OG
draw
T1
Market Odds
2.4 (+140)
2.71 (+171)
3.11 (+211)
Implied Win Probability
41.67%
36.90%
32.15%
Implied Win (Normalized)
37.63%
33.33%
29.04%
Calculated Win Probability
23.88%
44.75%
31.37%
Expected Value
-0.547
0.0772
-0.1798
Bet Size
Bet @ odds > +430
Bet 12.44%
Bet @ odds > +279
You can also find all of these suggestions on our suggested bets page, which will stay up-to-date as the tournament progresses!
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