Dota 2 DPC 2021/22 Tour 1 Simulations and Predictions
There's been some downtime post-TI (and BTS), but the floodgates of Dota 2 matches have opened back up with the start of the DPC season! With six regions, two divisions per region, and eight teams per division, some quick math puts that at... a loooot of Dota to be played.
I'll be keeping up with all of it on my daily-updated suggested bets page, but this post will give you a rundown of what to expect in each region.
The DPC Format
I won't give a full explanation of the format; I'd suggest you simply read through the full rules, if you're interested, here:
The important takeaway, though, is that in each "tour" (aka season), each division plays a single round robin of best-of-three matches. This means I get to simulate the results of this, just like with any other group stage.
At the end of each tour is a Major, and tournaments are always fun, but the first one won't be until at least February in all likelihood, so we'll revisit that in the future.
Simulations
For each division, I simulated the results of the round robin, using my model's predictions of each head-to-head matchup. Each division was simulated 20000 times, with each team playing each other team once for a total of seven games per team.
There are a lot of divisions here, so I'll just quickly skim through them with some summary stats on which teams I would expect to perform well.
Keep in mind that the records I'm presenting are match win/loss records, not game win/loss records - since each match is best-of-three, the total number of games may vary for each team.
If you want more in-depth data on any specific group, just let me know! I've simplified this post since there would be an insane amount of content otherwise (normally, I would do a full analytical post for each group, but twelve posts seems excessive), but am happy to split things out if there's interest!
Western Europe
Division I
Expected record:
| Team Name | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Team Secret | 4.49124 | 2.50876 |
| Tundra Esports | 4.30994 | 2.69006 |
| Nigma Galaxy | 3.95966 | 3.04034 |
| Team Liquid | 3.9015 | 3.0985 |
| Alliance | 3.57062 | 3.42938 |
| Team Tickles | 3.29446 | 3.70554 |
| OG | 2.46038 | 4.53962 |
| COOLGUYS | 2.0122 | 4.9878 |
Placement probabilities (top six teams avoid elimination):
| Team Name | % 1st Place | Median Place | % Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Secret | 28.12% | 3rd | 94.48% |
| Tundra Esports | 23.16% | 3rd | 92.60% |
| Nigma Galaxy | 15.52% | 4th | 87.92% |
| Team Liquid | 14.36% | 4th | 87.50% |
| Alliance | 9.70% | 4th | 81.44% |
| Team Tickles | 6.60% | 5th | 74.78% |
| OG | 1.83% | 7th | 48.34% |
| COOLGUYS | 0.71% | 7th | 32.94% |
Division II
Expected record:
| Team Name | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Entity | 5.07622 | 1.92378 |
| Chicken Fighters | 4.96558 | 2.03442 |
| Brame | 4.17326 | 2.82674 |
| Into The Breach | 3.72028 | 3.27972 |
| CHILLAX | 3.5452 | 3.4548 |
| Team Bald Reborn | 2.84024 | 4.15976 |
| Ghost Frogs | 1.97088 | 5.02912 |
| No Bounty Hunter | 1.70834 | 5.29166 |
Placement probabilities:
| Team Name | % 1st Place | Median Place | % Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entity | 37.88% | 2nd | 98.88% |
| Chicken Fighters | 33.50% | 2nd | 98.41% |
| Brame | 13.51% | 3rd | 93.97% |
| Into The Breach | 7.30% | 4th | 88.80% |
| CHILLAX | 5.62% | 4th | 86.03% |
| Team Bald Reborn | 1.71% | 6th | 69.34% |
| Ghost Frogs | 0.34% | 7th | 36.65% |
| No Bounty Hunter | 0.15% | 7th | 27.92% |
Eastern Europe
Division I
Expected record:
| Team Name | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Team Spirit | 5.619 | 1.381 |
| HellRaisers | 4.01975 | 2.98025 |
| Natus Vincere | 3.8091 | 3.1909 |
| Virtus.pro | 3.54715 | 3.45285 |
| PuckChamp | 2.94125 | 4.05875 |
| Team Unique | 2.77095 | 4.22905 |
| AS Monaco Gambit | 2.6503 | 4.3497 |
| Team Empire | 2.6425 | 4.3575 |
Placement probabilities:
| Team Name | % 1st Place | Median Place | % Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Spirit | 66.33% | 1st | 99.46% |
| HellRaisers | 11.36% | 3rd | 90.00% |
| Natus Vincere | 8.77% | 4th | 86.55% |
| Virtus.pro | 6.12% | 4th | 82.10% |
| PuckChamp | 2.62% | 5th | 66.46% |
| Team Unique | 1.93% | 6th | 61.29% |
| AS Monaco Gambit | 1.45% | 6th | 57.07% |
| Team Empire | 1.43% | 6th | 57.06% |
Division II
Expected record:
| Team Name | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| CIS Rejects | 4.53165 | 2.46835 |
| V-Gaming | 4.39175 | 2.60825 |
| Gambit-2 | 4.31175 | 2.68825 |
| Nemiga Gaming | 3.9955 | 3.0045 |
| Hydra | 3.92815 | 3.07185 |
| Winstrike Team | 3.62395 | 3.37605 |
| Fantastic Five | 1.9791 | 5.0209 |
| B8 | 1.23815 | 5.76185 |
Placement probabilities:
| Team Name | % 1st Place | Median Place | % Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIS Rejects | 24.73% | 3rd | 96.29% |
| V-Gaming | 20.95% | 3rd | 95.47% |
| Gambit-2 | 19.66% | 3rd | 95.03% |
| Nemiga Gaming | 13.79% | 4th | 91.42% |
| Hydra | 12.09% | 4th | 90.92% |
| Winstrike Team | 8.26% | 5th | 86.53% |
| Fantastic Five | 0.49% | 7th | 32.40% |
| B8 | 0.03% | 8th | 11.95% |
China
Division I
Expected record:
| Team Name | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| PSG.LGD | 6.00975 | 0.99025 |
| Invictus Gaming | 4.44335 | 2.55665 |
| Team Aster | 4.25705 | 2.74295 |
| Royal Never Give Up | 4.15925 | 2.84075 |
| Vici Gaming | 3.6198 | 3.3802 |
| EHOME | 2.6224 | 4.3776 |
| LBZS | 1.9492 | 5.0508 |
| Phoenix Gaming | 0.9392 | 6.0608 |
Placement probabilities:
| Team Name | % 1st Place | Median Place | % Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSG.LGD | 71.06% | 1st | 99.96% |
| Invictus Gaming | 10.19% | 3rd | 97.65% |
| Team Aster | 8.12% | 3rd | 96.97% |
| Royal Never Give Up | 7.14% | 4th | 96.03% |
| Vici Gaming | 2.96% | 4th | 91.16% |
| EHOME | 0.43% | 6th | 68.97% |
| LBZS | 0.08% | 7th | 39.88% |
| Phoenix Gaming | 0.01% | 8th | 9.38% |
Division II
Expected record:
| Team Name | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Xtreme Gaming | 5.3233 | 1.6767 |
| MagMa | 4.7252 | 2.2748 |
| Aster.Aries | 4.1783 | 2.8217 |
| Sparking Arrow Gaming | 3.9371 | 3.0629 |
| Neptune Gaming | 3.2599 | 3.7401 |
| CDEC Gaming | 2.662 | 4.338 |
| Ybb Gaming | 2.268 | 4.732 |
| ShenZen | 1.6462 | 5.3538 |
Placement probabilities:
| Team Name | % 1st Place | Median Place | % Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xtreme Gaming | 47.41% | 2nd | 99.33% |
| MagMa | 24.64% | 2nd | 97.65% |
| Aster.Aries | 12.90% | 3rd | 93.81% |
| Sparking Arrow Gaming | 9.37% | 4th | 91.65% |
| Neptune Gaming | 3.65% | 5th | 80.07% |
| CDEC Gaming | 1.35% | 6th | 63.00% |
| Ybb Gaming | 0.56% | 7th | 48.34% |
| ShenZen | 0.13% | 7th | 26.15% |
Southeast Asia
Division I
Expected record:
| Team Name | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| BOOM Esports | 5.01765 | 1.98235 |
| Motivate.Trust Gaming | 4.4069 | 2.5931 |
| Team SMG | 4.2592 | 2.7408 |
| T1 | 4.0751 | 2.9249 |
| Fnatic | 3.8574 | 3.1426 |
| OB Esports x Neon | 2.4353 | 4.5647 |
| TNC Predator | 2.06525 | 4.93475 |
| Execration | 1.8832 | 5.1168 |
Placement probabilities:
| Team Name | % 1st Place | Median Place | % Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOOM Esports | 38.61% | 2nd | 98.58% |
| Motivate.Trust Gaming | 19.56% | 3rd | 95.62% |
| Team SMG | 16.48% | 3rd | 94.34% |
| T1 | 13.38% | 4th | 92.65% |
| Fnatic | 10.32% | 4th | 89.94% |
| OB Esports x Neon | 0.94% | 6th | 55.01% |
| TNC Predator | 0.41% | 7th | 40.00% |
| Execration | 0.29% | 7th | 33.87% |
Division II
Expected record:
| Team Name | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Polaris Esports | 4.9291 | 2.0709 |
| Nigma Galaxy SEA | 4.8756 | 2.1244 |
| Talon Esports | 4.6201 | 2.3799 |
| Ragdoll | 4.4491 | 2.5509 |
| Lilgun | 2.88405 | 4.11595 |
| Army Geniuses | 2.87955 | 4.12045 |
| 496 Gaming | 1.8222 | 5.1778 |
| InterActive Philippines | 1.5403 | 5.4597 |
Placement probabilities:
| Team Name | % 1st Place | Median Place | % Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polaris Esports | 29.74% | 2nd | 98.92% |
| Nigma Galaxy SEA | 28.34% | 2nd | 98.57% |
| Talon Esports | 21.19% | 3rd | 97.67% |
| Ragdoll | 17.27% | 3rd | 96.79% |
| Lilgun | 1.69% | 6th | 74.30% |
| Army Geniuses | 1.58% | 6th | 73.92% |
| 496 Gaming | 0.11% | 7th | 34.76% |
| InterActive Philippines | 0.07% | 7th | 25.06% |
North America
Division I
Expected record:
| Team Name | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Undying | 5.6299 | 1.3701 |
| Evil Geniuses | 4.7517 | 2.2483 |
| 4 Zoomers | 4.67015 | 2.32985 |
| Quincy Crew | 3.9932 | 3.0068 |
| simply TOOBASED | 2.5742 | 4.4258 |
| D2 Hustlers | 2.3911 | 4.6089 |
| Black N Yellow | 2.02965 | 4.97035 |
| Arkosh Gaming | 1.9601 | 5.0399 |
Placement probabilities:
| Team Name | % 1st Place | Median Place | % Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Undying | 53.74% | 1st | 99.81% |
| Evil Geniuses | 20.09% | 3rd | 98.33% |
| 4 Zoomers | 17.46% | 3rd | 98.18% |
| Quincy Crew | 7.38% | 4th | 93.67% |
| simply TOOBASED | 0.63% | 6th | 64.72% |
| D2 Hustlers | 0.40% | 6th | 58.35% |
| Black N Yellow | 0.18% | 7th | 44.76% |
| Arkosh Gaming | 0.14% | 7th | 42.16% |
Division II
Expected record:
| Team Name | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| The Cut | 4.3511 | 2.6489 |
| Team DogChamp | 4.1465 | 2.8535 |
| KBU.US | 4.1267 | 2.8733 |
| Team Magnus | 3.77055 | 3.22945 |
| 5RATFORCESTAFF | 3.3606 | 3.6394 |
| 5ManMidas | 3.11205 | 3.88795 |
| Electronic Boys | 2.90075 | 4.09925 |
| Felt | 2.23175 | 4.76825 |
Placement probabilities:
| Team Name | % 1st Place | Median Place | % Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Cut | 25.88% | 3rd | 92.24% |
| Team DogChamp | 21.08% | 3rd | 89.92% |
| KBU.US | 20.40% | 3rd | 89.81% |
| Team Magnus | 13.53% | 4th | 83.82% |
| 5RATFORCESTAFF | 7.92% | 5th | 75.06% |
| 5ManMidas | 5.81% | 5th | 68.40% |
| Electronic Boys | 4.08% | 6th | 61.71% |
| Felt | 1.31% | 7th | 39.04% |
South America
Division I
Expected record:
| Team Name | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Thunder Predator | 5.3423 | 1.6577 |
| Infamous | 4.78095 | 2.21905 |
| Lava BestPc | 3.76025 | 3.23975 |
| beastcoast | 3.5909 | 3.4091 |
| Hokori | 3.41475 | 3.58525 |
| NoPing e-sports | 2.9258 | 4.0742 |
| King Of Kings | 2.2394 | 4.7606 |
| SG e-sports | 1.94565 | 5.05435 |
Placement probabilities:
| Team Name | % 1st Place | Median Place | % Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder Predator | 50.46% | 1st | 99.16% |
| Infamous | 27.45% | 2nd | 97.36% |
| Lava BestPc | 8.03% | 4th | 87.74% |
| beastcoast | 6.22% | 4th | 84.98% |
| Hokori | 4.86% | 5th | 81.34% |
| NoPing e-sports | 2.17% | 6th | 69.47% |
| King Of Kings | 0.56% | 7th | 44.92% |
| SG e-sports | 0.26% | 7th | 35.02% |
Division II
Expected record:
| Team Name | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Our Way | 5.5986 | 1.4014 |
| Infinity Esports | 5.413 | 1.587 |
| Balrogs | 4.4828 | 2.5172 |
| Omega Gaming | 3.35125 | 3.64875 |
| Gorillaz-Pride | 3.2218 | 3.7782 |
| Team Unknown | 2.20995 | 4.79005 |
| Interitus | 2.158 | 4.842 |
| Inverse | 1.5646 | 5.4354 |
Placement probabilities:
| Team Name | % 1st Place | Median Place | % Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our Way | 46.88% | 2nd | 99.83% |
| Infinity Esports | 37.28% | 2nd | 99.69% |
| Balrogs | 11.58% | 3rd | 97.69% |
| Omega Gaming | 2.15% | 5th | 86.18% |
| Gorillaz-Pride | 1.74% | 5th | 83.78% |
| Team Unknown | 0.21% | 6th | 52.81% |
| Interitus | 0.14% | 6th | 51.52% |
| Inverse | 0.03% | 7th | 28.49% |
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