Dota 2 DPC 2021/22 Tour 1 Simulations and Predictions

There's been some downtime post-TI (and BTS), but the floodgates of Dota 2 matches have opened back up with the start of the DPC season! With six regions, two divisions per region, and eight teams per division, some quick math puts that at... a loooot of Dota to be played.

I'll be keeping up with all of it on my daily-updated suggested bets page, but this post will give you a rundown of what to expect in each region.

The DPC Format

I won't give a full explanation of the format; I'd suggest you simply read through the full rules, if you're interested, here:

Dota Pro Circuit 2021-22

The format for the 2021-2022 season remains largely the same as the previous season. However, instead of two tours, this season will have three tours.As in previous season, Roster Locks are implemented from the start of each Regional League until the end. Rosters will unlock at the conclusion of th…

Liquipedia Dota 2 Wiki

The important takeaway, though, is that in each "tour" (aka season), each division plays a single round robin of best-of-three matches. This means I get to simulate the results of this, just like with any other group stage.

At the end of each tour is a Major, and tournaments are always fun, but the first one won't be until at least February in all likelihood, so we'll revisit that in the future.

Simulations

For each division, I simulated the results of the round robin, using my model's predictions of each head-to-head matchup. Each division was simulated 20000 times, with each team playing each other team once for a total of seven games per team.

There are a lot of divisions here, so I'll just quickly skim through them with some summary stats on which teams I would expect to perform well.

Keep in mind that the records I'm presenting are match win/loss records, not game win/loss records - since each match is best-of-three, the total number of games may vary for each team.

If you want more in-depth data on any specific group, just let me know! I've simplified this post since there would be an insane amount of content otherwise (normally, I would do a full analytical post for each group, but twelve posts seems excessive), but am happy to split things out if there's interest!

Western Europe

Division I

Expected record:

Placement probabilities (top six teams avoid elimination):

Division II

Expected record:

Placement probabilities:

Eastern Europe

Division I

Expected record:

Placement probabilities:

Division II

Expected record:

Placement probabilities:

China

Division I

Expected record:

Placement probabilities:

Division II

Expected record:

Placement probabilities:

Southeast Asia

Division I

Expected record:

Placement probabilities:

Division II

Expected record:

Placement probabilities:

North America

Division I

Expected record:

Placement probabilities:

Division II

Expected record:

Placement probabilities:

South America

Division I

Expected record:

Placement probabilities:

Division II

Expected record:

Placement probabilities:

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